Kenya Politics news
With exactly one week to the election, voters are all although decided. Though the polls put the numbers of undecided at around 5%, the idea is actually likely which those respondents chose to withhold their choice.
In just one week, we will find out whether the idea will be another 5 years for Jubilee, or Raila will become our 5th president.
Contrary to what some people think, there will be no run off. For the country to go into a second round, there needs to be a strong 3rd candidate to eat away Raila as well as also also Uhuru’s numbers. As the idea stands, all the different candidates will be lucky to get 1% combined. Therefore, This specific election will be decided next Tuesday.
Both Uhuru as well as also also Raila have made tremendous gains in ‘enemy’ territories; counties they did not do too well in 2013. The county polls by the various pollsters present very different results, although the trend is actually clear. Not one particular county has shifted via the 2013 voting pattern in its entirety. Of course with the exception of Mudavadi’s counties which at This specific point belong to Raila.
although going with recent events, these are 5 counties we can expect President Uhuru to perform better than 2013. (Tomorrow we look at counties Raila will perform better than in 2013)
2013: Raila – 70.5%, Uhuru – 23.8%
Uhuru has spent more time in Mombasa than probably any different county with exception of Nairobi. Despite his differences with Governor Joho, Uhuru has literally made Mombasa his second home.
The best part for Jubilee is actually which most of Uhuru’s visits to the county have been development-based as well as also also highly publicized because of his feud with Joho.
Apart via the programmes which benefit all counties, Mombasa has received a few completely new as well as also also better roads, a refurbished market etc. the idea will also be one of the primary beneficiaries of the SGR train service, both directly as well as also also indirectly.
On the different hand, Joho his dealing with poor sanitation issues. Many residents are particularly unhappy with the way he has handled the garbage problem inside the coastal city.
Make no mistake. Joho will win by a huge margin. although in my view, Uhuru’s 2013 numbers have only gone up.
Mombasa 2017 prediction: Uhuru – 30-40%.
2013: Raila – 87%, Uhuru – 9.7%
This specific is actually another county which Jubilee has courted actively. Governor Alfred Mutua is actually doing quite well in opinion polls, although whether his votes translate to Uhuru’s votes is actually a whole ‘nother issue.
the idea is actually likely which Mutua may have swayed a few of his supporters via believing in Kalonzo. the idea is actually also likely which some people in Ukambani read betrayal in Raila dishonoring the 2013 agreement with Kalonzo. Johnstone Muthama’s public disagreements with Kalonzo have not helped matters, as well as also also there probably are a few who no longer think which Kalonzo is actually strong enough a leader.
although the main reason I believe Jubilee will do better This specific time round in Machakos, is actually the power of incumbency. You see, when you read a few comments on Twitter about the state of the country, you think its all doom. However, I bet there are quite a substantial number of people which Jubilee touched individually. is actually the idea by providing a completely new borehole, paying for maternity, electricity, a completely new road.. etc.
These are the people which will boost Jubilee’s numbers in Machakos.
In 2013, Uhuruto performed so dismally in Machakos, which the idea will take a miracle to beat those numbers. Indeed, Raila with 87% in 2013 did not leave himself too much room to grow This specific time round.
Machakos prediction 2017: Uhuru – 20-30%
2013: Raila – 84.7%, Uhuru – 10.3%
Without a doubt, the entire coast region is actually a place Jubilee is actually determined to raid. In 2013, Raila ran away with the region, as well as also also This specific time round the idea will be no different. However, just like Machakos county, Raila performed so well here in 2013, which the idea will be very hard to maintain or improve on those numbers. Especially not with the direct offensive launched by Uhuruto.
Governor Kingi will take the idea easily. although between Gideon Mung’aro as well as also also Kazungu Kambi, both vying for the governor seat as well as also also supporting Uhuru, they will definitely influence a substantial number of voters. Some polls already have them at over 30% combined.
Just as before, the power of incumbency will play a big role. the idea is actually easier to show people what has been done than tell them what has not been done. Which presents an almost impossible task for Raila to maintain or improve on the 2013 numbers.
Kilifi 2017 Prediction: Uhuru – 25-40%.
2013: Raila – 81.4%, Uhuru – 14.1%
By at This specific point you can see the trend. Coast is actually likely to be more favourable to Uhuru This specific time round than the idea was in 2017.
In Kwale, Jubilee can point to several national government developments, as well as also also there is actually a big likelihood a few residents who did not vote for Uhuru appreciate.
As if things could not get better for Jubilee in Kwale, Governor Salim Mvurya defected via ODM. His re-election is actually not cast in stone like Joho’s, although the idea would likely be very unwise to dismiss his influence. Whether his personal votes translate into Uhuru’s votes remain to be seen, although one thing any analyst will tell you is actually which the idea looks much better for Jubilee than in 2013.
Kwale 2017 Prediction: Uhuru – 30-40%
2013: Raila – 86.5%, Uhuru – 3.7%
Well, the reasons here should be self explanatory. For an incumbent to do worse than 3.7%, he must have failed totally. As much as Jubilee has many flaws, they also have many things to show.
While most of Nasa saw the Sigiri Bridge collapse as God-sent, what did Busia people think of the idea. The fact which Uhuru made a pledge (as well as also also almost fulfilled) to once as well as also also for all stop the deaths on which river; what did residents think about This specific deed. Only a fool would likely think the idea did not win him a few votes.
What about Ababu Namwamba? Has he brought anything to the Jubilee table?
Probably nothing substantial, although if I were a betting person, I would likely say which a sitting president will get more than 3.7% This specific time round.
Busia 2017 Prediction: Uhuru – 10-20%
Tomorrow will look at counties Raila will perform better than 2013.
The above analysis is actually an opinion based on observation of the ‘mood’, as well as also also not supported by any scientific numbers.
Ⓒ 2014 Nairobi Wire
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Projection: 5 Counties Uhuru Kenyatta Will Perform Better Than in 2013